„The Macroprudential Policies and Monetary Policy“ seminar by CNB and CSE
The Czech National Bank and the Czech Economic Society cordially invite you to a seminar on “Macroprudential Policies and Monetary Policy”.
The seminar will consist of two lectures:
- “The Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Credit, Risk and Economic Performance” given by Leonardo Gambacorta (Bank for International Settlements) and
- “Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultra-Low Interest Rates” given by Mikael Juselius (Bank of Finland).
The seminar will start at 2 p.m. on Monday, 17 September 2018 at the CNB Congress Centre, Senovážné náměstí 30, Praha 1.
The seminar will be held in English.
To attend the event, please register at firstname.lastname@example.org by Thursday, 13 September 2018 at the latest.
The Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies on Credit, Risk and Economic Performance (L. Gambacorta, BIS)
· Macroprudential policies have been quite effective in stabilising credit cycles and containing bank risk. The propagation of the effects to credit growth is more rapid for policies aimed at curbing the cycle than for policies aimed at fostering resilience.
· The responses of bank risk and credit to changes in macroprudential tools differ among banks, depending on their specific balance sheet characteristics.
· Macroprudential tools have a greater effect on credit growth when reinforced by the use of monetary policy to push in the same direction.
· Countries that more frequently used macroprudential tools experienced stronger and less volatile GDP growth. These effects are influenced by each economy's openness and financial development.
Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultra-Low Interest Rates (M. Juselius, BoF)
· Do the prevailing unusually and persistently low real interest rates reflect a decline in the natural rate of interest? We argue that this is only part of the story. The critical role of financial factors in influencing medium-term economic fluctuations must also be taken into account.
· Policy rates have been persistently and systematically below this measure. Moreover, we find that monetary policy, through the financial cycle, has a long-lasting impact on output and, by implication, on real interest rates. Therefore, a narrative that attributes the decline in real rates primarily to an exogenous fall in the natural rate is incomplete. The influence of monetary and financial factors should not be ignored.
· An illustrative counterfactual experiment suggests that a monetary policy rule that takes financial developments systematically into account during could help dampen the financial cycle, leading to higher output even in the long run.
Autor - Mgr. Lucie Křížová M.A.