Detail publikace

The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy and Czech Economy’s Financial Stability through Logit Analysis

Autor: doc. PhDr. Ing. Ing. Petr Jakubík Ph.D. Ph.D.,
doc. PhDr. Petr Teplý Ph.D.,
Typ: IES Working Papers
Rok: 2008
Číslo: 19
ISSN / ISBN:
Publikováno v: IES Working Papers 19/2008
Místo vydání: Prague
Klíčová slova: bankruptcy prediction, financial stability, logit analysis, corporate sector risk, JT index
JEL kódy: G32, G33, G21, G28
Citace: Jakubík, P., Teplý, P. (2008). “ The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy and Czech Economy’s Financial Stability through Logit Analysis ” IES Working Paper 19/2008. IES FSV. Charles University.
Granty: Výzkumný záměr IES (2005-2011) Integrace české ekonomiky do Evropské unie a její rozvoj
Abstrakt: This article presents a financial scoring model estimated on Czech corporate accounting data. Seven financial indicators capable of explaining business failure at a 1-year prediction horizon are identified. Using the model estimated in this way, an aggregate indicator of the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector (named as JT index) is then constructed and its evolution over time is shown. This indicator aids the estimation of the risks of this sector going forward and broadens the existing analytical set-up used by the Czech National Bank for its financial stability analyses. The results suggest that the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector steadily improved between 2004 and 2006, but slightly deteriorated in 2007 what could be explained through global market turbulences.
Ke stažení: WP 2008_19_Jakubik, Teply
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