Publication detail

Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone

Author(s): doc. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek Ph.D.,
Type: IES Working Papers
Year: 2009
Number: 20
ISSN / ISBN:
Published in: IES Working Papers 20/2009
Publishing place: Prague
Keywords: Rose effect; Trade; Currency union; Euro; Meta-analysis; Publication bias
JEL codes: C42; F15; F33
Suggested Citation: Havránek, T. (2009). “ Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone ” IES Working Paper 20/2009. IES FSV. Charles University.
Abstract: This paper presents an updated meta-analysis of the effect of currency unions on trade, focusing on the Euro area. Using meta-regression methods such as funnel asymmetry test, evidence for strong publication bias is found. The estimated underlying effect for non-Euro studies reaches about 50%. However, the Euro's trade promoting effect corrected for publication bias is insignificant. The Rose effect literature shows signs of the economics research cycle: reported t-statistic is a quadratic function of publication year. Explanatory meta-regression (robust fixed effects and random effects) suggests that some authors produce predictable results. Interestingly, proxies for authors' IT skills were also found significant.
Downloadable: WP 2009_20_Havranek

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