Detail publikace

Rose Effect and the Euro: Is the Magic Gone?

Autor: prof. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek Ph.D.,
Typ: Články v impaktovaných časopisech
Rok: 2010
Číslo: 0
Publikováno v: Review of World Economics, 146(2), 241-261
Místo vydání:
Klíčová slova: Rose effect; Trade; Currency union; Euro; Meta-analysis; Publication bias
JEL kódy:
Granty: GAUK 76810 Development and Application of Meta-Analytic Methods in Economics Výzkumný záměr IES (2005-2011) Integrace české ekonomiky do Evropské unie a její rozvoj
Abstrakt: This paper presents an updated meta-analysis of the effect of currency unions on trade, focusing on the Euro area. Using meta-regression methods such as funnel asymmetry test, evidence for strong publication bias is found. The estimated underlying effect for currency unions other than Eurozone reaches about 50%. However, the Euro's trade promoting effect corrected for publication bias is insignificant according to the meta-regression analysis and significant but very small (1%--6%) using the trim and fill method. The Rose effect literature shows signs of the economics research cycle: reported t-statistic is a quadratic function of publication year. Explanatory meta-regression (robust fixed effects and random effects) suggests that results published by some authors might be predictable and that outcomes are systematically dependent on study design (usage of panel data, short- or long-run nature, number of countries in the dataset). Interestingly, papers written in LaTeX were also found to report significantly different results.


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