Detail publikace

The Extreme Value Theory and Copulas as a Tool to Measure Market Risk

Autor: Mgr. Krenar Avdulaj Ph.D.,
Typ: Články v recenzovaných časopisech
Rok: 2012
Číslo: 29
Publikováno v: Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, Czech Econometric Society, 19(29), pp. 70-90. PDF
Místo vydání:
Klíčová slova: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, Copula
JEL kódy: C22, G17
Citace: Avdulaj K. (2012): The Extreme Value Theory and Copulas as a Tool to Measure Market Risk, Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, 19(29), pp. 70-90
Abstrakt: Assessing the extreme events is crucial in financial risk management. All risk managers and financial institutions want to know the risk of their portfolio under rare events scenarios. We illustrate a multivariate market risk estimating method which employs Monte Carlo simulations to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of 4 stock exchange indexes from Central Europe. The method uses the non-parametric empirical distribution to capture small risks and the parametric Extreme Value Theory to capture large and rare risks. We compare estimates of this method with historical simulation and variance-covariance method under low and high volatility samples of data. In general historical simulation method gives higher estimates of VaR for extreme events, while variance-covariance lower. The method that we illustrate gives a result in between the two because it considers historical performance of the stocks and also corrects for the heavy tails of the distribution. We conclude that the estimate method that we illustrate here is useful in estimating VaR for extreme events, especially for high volatility times.
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