Publication detail

Central Banks' Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy

Author(s): prof. Roman Horváth Ph.D., Jonášová, Júlia
Type: IES Working Papers
Year: 2014
Number: 35
ISSN / ISBN:
Published in: IES Working Papers 35/2014
Publishing place: Prague
Keywords: voting records, financial crisis, central bank, monetary policy
JEL codes: D78, E52, E58
Suggested Citation: Horváth R., Jonášová J. (2014). “Central Banks’ Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy” IES Working Paper 35/2014. IES FSV. Charles University.
Abstract: We examine whether central banks’ voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, first, we examine the period of the global financial crisis, characterized by a high level of uncertainty, and second, we examine the predictive power of voting records at longer time horizons, i.e., not only for the next monetary policy meeting. We find that voting records predict the policy rate set at the next meeting in all central banks that are recognized as independent. In some central banks, voting records are found—before, but not during, the financial crisis—to be informative about
monetary policy even at more distant time horizons.
Downloadable: wp_2014_35_Horvath_Jonasova
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