Publication detail

Interest Rates Modeling and Forecasting: Do Macroeconomic Factors Matter?

Author(s): Mgr. Ing. Adam Kučera ,
Type: IES Working Papers
Year: 2017
Number: 8
ISSN / ISBN:
Published in: IES Working Papers 08/2017
Publishing place: Prague
Keywords: Interest Rate, Yield Curve, Macro-Finance Model, Affine Model, Nelson-Siegel
JEL codes: C38, C51, C58, E43, E47
Suggested Citation: Kucera A. (2017). ” Interest Rates Modeling and Forecasting: Do Macroeconomic Factors Matter?” IES Working Paper 8/2017. IES FSV. Charles University.
Grants: Examining the Impact of the Government Spending on the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Macro-Finance Approach
Abstract: Recent studies documented a sufficient forecasting performance of shadow-rate models in the low yields environment. Moreover, it has been shown that including the macro-variables into the shadow-rate models further improves the results. We build on these findings and evaluate for the U.S. Treasury yields, whether the lower bound proximity was truly the only issue to reflect in the interest rate modeling since the Great Recession. Surprisingly, we discover that the relative importance of yield curve factors has changed as well. More specifically, instead of macroeconomic factors, financial market sentiment factors became dominant since the recent financial turmoil. Based on such finding, we show, that extending the macro-finance interest rate models by financial market sentiment proxies further improves the forecasting performance.
Downloadable: wp_2017_08_kucera

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