Detail publikace

The impact of the Brexit vote on UK financial markets: a synthetic control method approach

Autor: Matěj Opatrný MSc.,
Typ: Články v impaktovaných časopisech
Rok: 2020
Číslo: 0
ISSN / ISBN:
Publikováno v: Empirica
Místo vydání: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-020-09481-7 (online-first)
Klíčová slova: Brexit, Financial markets, Macroeconomic indicators, Synthetic control method
JEL kódy: C10, Q10, Q18
Citace: Opatrny, M. The impact of the Brexit vote on UK financial markets: a synthetic control method approach. Empirica (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-020-09481-7
Granty: GAUK no. 1250218: Pokuty americkým bankám a systémové riziko: přístup na základě asymetrických přelivů volatility SVV 260 463 - Heterogeneity in Economics and Finance: Strengthening of Doctoral Studies by Securing Excellent pre-gradual Students
Abstrakt: We estimate how the UK financial markets would have evolved if the Remain camp had won the referendum. To construct the counterfactual, we use the synthetic control method. Our results suggest that there would not have been any significant change in the development of the FTSE 100 Index in the medium to long term if there had not been a referendum. On the other hand, we find a significantly negative effect of 1.2 percentage points on the 10-year bond yield. Given the geopolitical circumstances in mid 2016, financial agents investing in the pound could have sought safer investment options represented by longer-term government bonds, which consequently could result in lower bond yields.
Prosinec 2020
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