† prof. Mgr. Kateřina Šmídková M.A., Ph.D. - Publications

Articles in journals with impact factor

2016 Voting in Central Banks: Theory vs. Stylized Facts, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 16(4), 1-62 (lead article)

2016 Leading Indicators of Financial Stress: New Evidence, Journal of Financial Stability, vol. 28, pp. 240-257

2015 Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises, Open Economies Review, vol. 26(3), pp.383-406

2014 Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests, International Journal of Central Banking, 10(1), 159-187 (featured on Hospodarske noviny and on ZET; received Czech National Bank's Economic Research Award)

2014 Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises in Developed Countries: Stylized Facts and Early Warning Indicators, Journal of Financial Stability 15, 1-17

2014 The Dissent Voting Behavior of Central Bankers: What Do We Really Know?, Applied Economics, 46(4), 450-461

2013 Leading Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from Developed Countries, Journal of International Money and Finance 35(1), 1-19

2012 Central Banks’ Voting Record and Future Policy, International Journal of Central Banking, 8(4), 1-19 (lead article; featured on Bloomberg)

2012 Is the U.S. Fed Voting Record Informative about Future Monetary Policy?, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 478-484

2012 Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

2012 Writing Clearly: The ECB's Monetary Policy Communication, German Economic Review

2008 Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

2007 Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 57(11-12), pp.540-557

2005 Bulíř, A. and Šmídková, K. Exchange Rates in the EU New Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners. Elsevier, Economic Systems, 2005, Vol. 29, p. 163-186.,

2005 Šmídková, K. How Inflation Targeters (Can) Deal with Uncertainty. Praha, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 2005, No. 7-8, p. 316-332.,

2003 Barrell, R., Holland, D., Šmídková, K.: Alternativy kurzové politiky v období před vstupem do eurozóny: empirická analýza. Finance a úvěr No. 5-6 (2003).,

2003 Barrell, R., Holland, D., Šmídková, K.: Načasování vstupu do eurozóny: empirická analýza. Finance a úvěr No. 3-4 (2003).,

2002 Šmídková, K.: Transmisní mechanismus měnové politiky na počátku třetího tisíciletí. Finance a úvěr No. 5 (2002),

2001 Šmídková K. (2001) Můžeme mít obojí?: Reálná a nominální konvergence v období přílivu přímých zahraničních investic, Finance a úvěr, č. 6.,

2000 Šmídková K. (2000) Specifikace alternativních měnových pravidel v modelu české ekonomiky, Finance a úvěr, č. 4.,

2000 Šmídková K. (2000) Srovnání alternativních měnových pravidel v modelu české ekonomiky, Finance a úvěr, č. 5.,

2000 Šmídková K. and Hrnčíř M. Transition to the Strategy of Inflation Targeting, M.E. Sharpe New York, Eastern European Economics, 2000, Vol 38, No 6, p 13-47.,

2000 Transition to the Strategy of Inflation Targeting, Eastern European Economics, November-December, Vol. 38, No. 6, p. 13-47

1999 Šmídková K., Tůma Z. (1999) Soudobé evropské pojetí nezávislosti centrální banky, Finance a úvěr, č. 9.,

1998 Allen Ch., Šmídková K. (1998) A Model of the Demand Czech Households for Financial Assets During Coupon Privatization, Eastern European Economics, January-February, Vol:36, No:1., M.E. Sharpe New York.,

1998 Allen Ch., Šmídková K. (1998) Voucher Privatisation, Households´ Demand for Consumption Goods and Financial Assets and Implications for Macroeconomic Policy, Economics of Transition, Vol. 6(1).,

1998 Šmídková K., Hrnčíř M. (1998) Přechod na strategii inflačního cílení, Finance a úvěr, č. 4.,

1996 Šmídková K. Účinnost měnové politiky a poptávka po penězích, Finance a úvěr, 1996, No 8, p 471-480.,

1995 Vývoj přístupů k makroekonometrickému modelování, Politická ekonomie, Vol. IV, No. 1, p. 113 - 124

Articles in refereed journals

2010 Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What did the Great Recession Change?, Washington, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, 2010, No 198.,

2009 Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: Is FDI a Mixed Blessing? , European Economy. Economic Papers. 368.

2009 The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States., European Economy. Occasional Papers 50

2008 Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports, IMF Working paper No 234

2008 Striving to Be 'Clearly Open' and 'Crystal Clear': Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, No. 84.

2008 Sustainable exchange rates when trade winds are plentiful, National Institute Economic Review, No. 204, p. 98-107

2008 Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication., IMF

2007 Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?, Česká národní banka, CNB Working paper No. 10.

2007 Inflation persistence: Euro area and new EU member states, European Central Bank, Working paper series, No 810.

2007 Inflation Targeting and Communication: Should the Public Read Inflation Reports or Tea Leaves, Česká národní banka, CNB Working paper No. 14.

2005 Bulíř, A. and Šmídková, K. Exchange Rates in the EU New Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners? International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, 2005, No. 27.,

2005 Šmídková, K. and Bulíř, A. Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us. Praha, Prague Economic Papers, 2005, No. 4, p. 291-316.,

2004 Bulíř, A. and Šmídková, K. Exchange Rates in the New Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners? Praha, Česká národní banka, 2004, Working Paper No. 10.,

2004 Šmídková, K. Adoption of the Euro: Why the Czech Approach Is Cautious. USA, Atlantic Economic Journal, 2004, December, Volume 32, Number 4, p. 302-311.,

2004 Šmídková, K. Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers’ Perspective. India, The ICFAI Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, Vol. II, No. 3, p. 54-95.,

2003 Šmídková, K. (2003): Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers` Perspective. Czech National Bank, Internal Research and Policy Note No. 2.,

2003 Šmídková, K. and Barrell, R. and Holland, D. Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries. Praha, Prague Economic Papers, 2003, No. 4, p. 291-318.,

2002 Barrell, R., Holland, D., Šmídková, K.: An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period. NIESR Discussion Paper No. 204 (2002), London.,

2002 Šmídková, K. and Barrell, R. and Holland, D. Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Accession Countries. Praha, Česká národní banka, 2002, Working Paper No. 3.,

2002 Šmídková, K., Barrell, R., Holland, D.: Estimating Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five Pre-Accession Countries (Synopse příspěvku pro 2. výroční konferenci ČSE). Finance a úvěr No. 11 (2002).,

2001 Mahadeva L., Šmídková K. (2001) What is the Optimal Rate of Disinflation to Be Targeted in the Czech Economy? Prague economic papers, Vol X, No: 2.,

2001 Mahadeva, L. and Šmídková, K. What is the Appropriate Rate of Disinflation to Be Targeted in the Czech Economy? Praha, Česká národní banka, 2001, Working Paper No. 33.,

2000 Šmídková K., Hrnčíř M. (2000) The Czech experience with inflation targeting in transition, Prague economic papers, No: 3.,

1999 Šmídková K. (1999) Estimating the FEER for the Czech Economy, Prague Economic Papers, No:1.,

1998 Šmídková, K. et. al. Koruna Exchange Rate Turbulence in May. Praha, Česká národní banka, 1998, Working Paper No. 2.,

1998 Šmídková, K. Estimating the FEER for the Czech Economy. Praha, Česká národní banka, 1998, Working Paper No. 87.,

1997 Allen Ch., Šmídková K.(1997) Modelování poptávky českých domácností po finančních aktivech v období kupónové privatizace: Aplikace obálkového teorému na systém téměř ideální poptávky, Politická ekonomie č.3.,

1997 Allen, Ch. and Šmídková, K. Voucher Privatization, Households´ Demand for Consumption Goods and Financial Assets and Implications for Macroeconomic Policy. Praha, Česká národní banka, 1997, Working Paper No. 70.,

1996 Lansbury M., Pain N., Šmídková K. ( 1996) Foreign Direct Investment in Central Europe since 1990: an econometric study, National Institute Economic Review, Number 156 May.,

1995 Šmídková, K.: Costs and Benefits of Monetary Disintegration: The Czech-Slovak Case, Development and International Cooperation (1995), Vol XI, No 20-21, pp 249-270.,

1994 Šmídková K. (1994) The Czech-Slovak Currency Union, Prague Economic Papers, Vol III, No 3, p 231-245,

Monograph

2008 Evaluation of the fulfilment of the CNB’s inflation targets 1998–2007, CNB

Chapter in book

2013 Voting Record and Monetary Policy Predictability: International Evidence, Siklos and Sturm (eds): Central Bank Communication, Decision-Making and Governance, MIT Press, 251-272

2012 Are You Clear Now? The ECB’s Written Communication on Monetary Policy, Siklos and Sturm (eds): Central Bank Communication, Decision-Making and Governance, MIT Press, forthcoming

2010 Monetary Policy Transparency and Predictability in Inflation Targeting Countries. In Roman Horvath (ed.). Inflation Targeting: Recent Challenges., VDM Verlag

2010 Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: Is FDI a Mixed Blessing?, in Keereman, F. and Szekely, I. (Eds.) Five years of an enlarged EU: A Positive Sum Game, Springer-Verlag

2008 The Czech Republic’s Inflation Targeting Experience In de Mello, L. (editor). Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets. Paris., OECD

2006 Fast Sailing Toward the Euro: Dangers of the Lee Shore, in Batini, N. (ed.) Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets and Other Developing Countries

2001 Hrnčíř M., Šmídková K. (2001) The Czech Approach to Inflation Targeting in Dickinson D.G. and Mullineux A.W. (ed.) Financial and Monetary Integration in the New Europe, Edward Elgar, UK.,

2001 Šmídková K. (2001) The Link between FEER and Fiscal Policy in a Transitional Period: the Case of the Czech Economy in Dickinson D.G. and Mullineux A.W. (ed.) Financial and Monetary Integration in the New Europe, Edward Elgar, UK.,

2000 Hrnčíř M., Šmídková K. (2000) Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic, in Mahadeva, Sterne (ed.) Monetary policy framework in a global context, Routledge, London.,

2000 Mahadeva L., Šmídková K. (2000) Modelling transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Czech Republic, in Mahadeva, Sterne (ed.) Monetary policy framework in a global context, Routledge, London.,

2000 Šmídková K., Hrnčíř M. (2000) Disinflating with inflation targeting: Lessons from the Czech experience, In Coats W. (ed) Inflation Targeting in Transition Economies: the Case of the Czech Republic, Czech National Bank and Monetary and Exchange Affairs Dep,

1997 Šmídková K. Dědek. O. (1997) Clearingový platební styk v Dědek O. a kol. Ekonomické aspekty zániku Československa, Praha, nakladatelství Fortuna,

1996 Šmídková K. (1996) Clearing payment system in Dědek O. (ed.) The Break-up of Czechoslovakia: An In-depth Economic Analysis, Avebury, Ashgate Publishing Limited, England.,

IES Working Papers

2012 Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises: Early Warning Indicators for Developed Countries, IES Working Papers 20/2012

2012 Dissent Voting Behavior of Central Bankers: What Do We Really Know?, IES Working Papers 5/2012

2011 Central Banks’ Voting Records and Future Policy, IES Working Papers 37/2011

2011 Early Warning Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries, IES Working Papers 36/2011

2008 Inflation Persistence: Is It Similar in the New EU Member States and the Euro Area Members? , IES Working Papers 25/2008

2004 Would Fast Sailing towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us about the Acceding Economies, IES WP 2004/64

Article in collection

2010 Macroeconomic Impact of the Crisis In „Workshop: “The impact of the crisis on new Member States“, European Parliament

2003 Šmídková, K. (2003): Euro - kdy a jak: empirická analýza. Česká společnost ekonomická. Bulletin, září 2003.,

2002 Barrell,R.,Holland,D.,Jakab,Z.,Kovacs,M.,Smidkova,K.,Sepp,U.,Cefer,U.:An Econometric Macro-model of Transtion:Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period.In: Proceesings of AMFET 2001 Conference-Modelling Economies in Transition,Krag(Poland),Absolwent,Lodz,

1999 Šmídková, K. Měnově-rozhodovací proces: nejistota a role prognóz. Praha, Česká společnost ekonomická, 1999, Bulletin ČSE, listopad.,

1996 The determinants of foreign direct investment in Central Europe by OECD countries: an econometric analysis, In Csáki, G., Fóti, G. and Mayes, D. (editors). Foreign Direct Investment And Transition: The Case Of The Visegrád Countries

Others

2015 Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network, MPRA Paper 62194

2015 Leading Indicators of Financial Stress: New Evidence, DNB Working Papers 476 (2015)

2012 Banking, debt and currency crises: early warning indicators for developed countries, ECB Working Paper 1485 (featured on Reuters)

2012 Leading indicators of crisis incidence: evidence from developed countries, ECB Working Paper 1486

2012 Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests, Czech National Bank Research Bulletin 1/2012

2011 Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting and Financial Stability Stress Tests, Czech National Bank working paper series No. 10-2011

2011 Central banks’ voting records and future policy, VoxEU.org Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

2011 Dissent Voting Behavior of Central Bankers: What Do We Really Know?, MPRA WP, No. 34638

2011 Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries, Czech National Bank WP 8/2011

2010 Central Banks’ Voting Record and Future Policy, Czech National Bank working paper series, No. 10-2010

2010 Obnovení recese ohrozí finanční stabilitu. Lidové noviny, 2010, 21. června.,

2010 Zdraví jen na první pohled. Euro, 2010, č. 25.,

2009 Banks can survive the crisis., časopis Ekonom

2009 Limiting uncertainty, časopis Euro

2008 Česko krizi zatím odolává. , Ekonom č. 24

2008 Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Implications for Inflation Targeting Strategy, Česká národní banka, CNB Research Bulletin, No. 1.

2008 Inflation Targeting and Communication, Česká národní banka, CNB Research Bulletin, No. 1.

2008 Turbulence se nám nevyhnuly, Euro, č. 30

2007 Externí prostředí a finanční stabilita ČR, Euro č. 34

2007 Finančnictví svědčí růst HDP, Ekonom č. 26

2007 Nic se neděje, Euro č. 43

2006 Dynamika úvěrů výrazně roste, Ekonom č. 22

2006 Mezinárodní integrace a finanční stabilita, Euro č. 23

2006 Navigating the Wind Tunel, CNB Research Bulletin, No. 2.

2004 Šmídková, K. Dosažení životní úrovně EU nepřijde samo. Ekonom, 2004, č. 3.,

2004 Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers’ Perspective, CNB Research Buletin No. 2.

2004 The euro – when and how? , Czech Business and Trade, No.5-6

2003 Barrell, R.,Holland, D.,Šmídková, K.:Alternativy měnové a kurzové politiky v období před vstupem do eurozóny:empirická analýza.Podklad pro skupinu expertů MFČR a ČNB-podklad pro potřeby skupiny zpracován na základě NIESR Discussion Paper No. 204.,

2003 Šmídková, K. Lepší bude plavat. Euro, 2003, č. 14.,

2003 Šmídková, K.: When Will the Czech Republic Be Prepared for the Euro? Czech Business and Trade No. 1-2 (2003), pp. 12-13.,

2002 Šmídková, K. Hledání rovnováhy. Euro, 2002, č. 43.,

2002 Šmídková, K. Je to ještě daleko? Euro, 2002, č. 30.,

2000 Šmídková, K. Na hranicích eurozóny. Euro, 2000, č. 17.,

1999 Šmídková, K. Dvě pravidla pro centrální banku: Dělej, cos řekl – říkej, co děláš. Hospodářské noviny, 1999, 19. 5.,

1998 Šmídková K. a kol (1998), Měnové turbulence koruny v květnu 1997, Bankovnictví č. 5.,

1998 Šmídková, K. Dosavadní zkušenosti centrální banky s cílováním inflace. Hospodářšké noviny, 1998, 27. 10.,

1997 Šmídková K (ed). Měnové turbulence koruny v květnu 1997, který byl v roce 1997 zpracován pro potřeby Bankovní rady ČNB jako dokument zachycující průběh kurzové turbulence v období duben-srpen 1997. Dokument vznikl ve spolupráci s experty ČNB.,

1997 Šmídková K. (ed) Návrh strategie měnové politiky, materiál projednala v listopadu 1997 Bankovní rada ČNB, v prosinci 1997 byl po té zaveden režim cílování inflace. Dokument vznikl ve spolupráci se členy Bankovní rady ČNB.,

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