Work detail

Prophecy from crystal ball - Forecast of foreign labour immigration in Czech Republic with panel data

Author: Bc. Jan Duben
Year: 2008 - summer
Leaders: Ing. Vilém Semerák M.A., Ph.D.
Consultants:
Work type: Bachelors
Language: English
Pages: 47
Awards and prizes:
Link:
Abstract: The aim of this work is to construct a forecast of legal foreign labour immigration to Czech Republic with panel data. Brief overview of migration literature is followed by the construction of empirical model. Migration is explained here mainly through economic variables such as wage levels and unemployment rates in both, home and source countries. Moreover, additional explanatory variables such as geographical distance and cross-sectional dummies for home countries are used. Two data sets, both depicting the labour immigration from 16 source countries to Czech Republic, are available. First data set covers the years 1995-2005 whereas the second data set covers the period 2000-2007. Estimation methods includes Pooled OLS, Fixed effects and Random effects panel data models. The best model was chosen to forecast the labour migration for 2006-2020. Three different migration scenarios are created on the basis of past historical experiences of Ireland, Greece and Portugal, combined with assumptions about future Czech unemployment.
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