Work detail

Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging

Author: Mgr. Nikoloz Kudashvili
Year: 2013 - summer
Leaders: prof. Roman Horváth Ph.D.
Consultants:
Work type: Masters
MEF
Language: English
Pages: 84
Awards and prizes: Pochvala děkana Fakulty sociálních věd za vynikající výkon u státních zkoušek.
Link:
Abstract: The paper estimates the economic growth determinants across 72 countries
using a Bayesian Model Averaging. Unlike the other studies we include debt
to GDP ratio as an explanatory variable among 29 growth determinants. For
given values of the other variables debt to GDP ratio up to the threshold level
is positively related with the growth rate. The coefficient on the ratio has
nearly 0.8 posterior inclusion probability suggesting that debt to GDP ratio is
an important long term growth determinant. We find that the initial level of
GDP, life expectancy and equipment investments have a strong effect on the
GDP per capita growth rate together with the debt to GDP ratio.

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