Work detail

Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change

Author: Bc. Dominika Rečková
Year: 2014 - summer
Leaders: doc. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek Ph.D.
Consultants:
Work type: Bachelors
Language: English
Pages: 55
Awards and prizes: B.A. with distinction from the Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences for an extraordinarily good bachelors diploma thesis.
Link: https://is.cuni.cz/webapps/zzp/detail/134657/
Abstract: People around the world are interested in climate changes. Especially the impact of human being on
climate changes plays an important role in the policy discussion about environment. One of the
measures of anthropogenic climate change is climate sensitivity. The main aim of this thesis is to apply
meta-analysis methodology on relationship between human activity and climate change. Until now, tens
to hundreds of studies have been written on this topic, but only few report the estimate of climate
sensitivity. Despite majority of the studies refer to recognizable influence of human activity on the
climate change, the results of individual studies do not correspond in absolute values perfectly. Until
now only one meta-analysis concerns publication bias in literature covering climate change, it uses vote-
counting and detects publication selectivity efforts. But no meta-regression analysis was published on
this topic yet.
The thesis investigates if the results of studies reporting climate sensitivity are influenced with the effort
to publish only positive and significant estimates. It applies effective statistic instrument, meta-
regression analysis, that allows systematic evaluation of an inconsistent sample of estimates. This
method was applied on the data set consisting of 48 estimates coming from 16 studies. Results detects
strong upward publication selectivity. Besides the meta-analysis find out that the true effect of climate
sensitivity corrected for publication bias oscillates between 1.4 and 2.3 °C

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