Work detail

Wavelet analysis of business cycles in the Visegrad Four

Author: Mgr. Luboš Hanus
Year: 2014 - summer
Leaders: Mgr. Lukáš Vácha Ph.D.
Consultants:
Work type: Economic Theory
Masters
Language: English
Pages: 115
Awards and prizes: M.A. with distinction from the Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences for an excellent state-final examination performance.
Link: https://is.cuni.cz/webapps/zzp/detail/138357/
Abstract: This thesis presents an analysis of business cycles in the Visegrad Four on monthly data during 1991-­2013. Using the wavelet analysis techniques, we find that the relationship of output and key macroeconomic indicators is dynamic and varies over time and across all frequencies. Furthermore, we study the
output synchronization within the Visegrad Four countries and Visegrad Four with Germany. In the Visegrad region, all countries have highly coherent output during the first years of transition. After 1995, their positive co
-­movement suffers from policy divergence. The
synchronization across the Visegrad group
increased again, as the countries prepared for their accession to the EU. Among the Visegrad countries, The Czech Republic and Hungary have highly coherent
business cycles with Germany during 2000-­2013, while Poland’s business cycle is the least synchronized with
Germany

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