Analysis of wind speed distribution and applications in energy economics
|Autor:||Bc. Václav Brož|
|Rok:||2015 - letní|
|Vedoucí:|| RNDr. Michal Červinka Ph.D.
|Typ práce:|| Bakalářská
|Abstrakt:||Integration of generators of wind power into the electricity grid involves
specific costs due to the intermittent nature of wind. Analysis of wind speed
distribution is essential for accurate short-term prediction of wind power output
in order to avoid mismatch between supply and demand in electricity markets.
This thesis theoretically describes the analysis of wind speed distribution, highlighting
econometric and statistical concepts pertaining to the high persistence
(modelling by the means of an AR(1) process) and the non-negativity (use of
truncated normal distribution) of wind speed data. A random vector describing
the evolution of wind speed in time for a location in the Czech Republic
is derived and its parameters are compared with those from the work of other