Work detail

Evaluating the Effect of 2014 Sanctions against Russia Using Synthetic Control Methods

Author: Mgr. Dmitriy Pchelintsev
Year: 2017 - winter
Leaders: doc. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek Ph.D.
Consultants:
Work type: Finance, Financial Markets and Banking
Masters
Language: English
Pages: 81
Awards and prizes:
Link: https://is.cuni.cz/webapps/zzp/detail/158999/
Abstract: In the new global economy majority of the developed countries
use imposition of sanctions in the case of some offences. I have applied
the synthetic control methods on this particular case of political pressure
to quantify the real costs of anti-Russian sanctions to the economy. Based
on the results of this study it was identified, that real GDP growth rate of
Russia was continuously reducing by about -1,19% per quarter on
average. Reaching the highest value of sanction’s effect of -2,8% in real
GDP growth rate at the end of 2015. It was also revealed that sanctions
had positive effect on current account balance of Russia, that indicator
was increasing during the whole studied after sanction’s period by about
3,15% per quarter on average.
This thesis is presented as a research of interconnection the
imposition of 2014 sanctions against Russia and indicators of economic
development (GDP, inflation) using synthetic control methods. It was
revealed that former economic and social mechanisms aren't capable to
provide further development of economy of Russia, its self-sufficiency
and safety.

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Deloitte
McKinsey & Company

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EY