Impact of the Oil Price Drop on the Czech Economy
|Autor:||Bc. Kristýna Kenšová|
|Rok:||2017 - letní|
|Vedoucí:|| doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub Ph.D.
|Typ práce:|| Bakalářská
|Abstrakt:||The main focus of this thesis is on analysing the impact of the most recent oil price
drop in 2014 on main macroeconomic indicators in the Czech Republic, specifically
the GDP, CPI, and current account of goods. To explore the effects of falling price
of oil on the Czech economy, a macroeconomic analysis is conducted, implying lower
CPI caused mainly by a decrease in fuel, import and producer prices. Further,
consumption and investment increased, supporting the growth of GDP, and the
surplus of the external trade in goods improved. This thesis also proposes a VAR
model on quarterly data from 1996 to 2016. Using the impulse responses and forecast
error variance decomposition, the results presented in the macroeconomic analysis
can be mostly confirmed. The findings of both of the analyses suggest that the
effects of the 2014 oil price drop on the Czech economy were significant.