Presidential rhetoric, sentiment and their relation to stock markets
|Author:||Bc. Mária Partelová|
|Year:||2017 - summer|
|Leaders:|| PhDr. Boril Šopov, MSc., LL.M.
|Work type:|| Bachelors
|Awards and prizes:|
|Abstract:||This thesis intends to uncover the linkages between the emotions contained within remarks of the
president of the United States expressed on Twitter and movements of the stock market indices. The daily
comments of the two consecutive presidents, Barack Obama and Donald Trump are annotated with
sentiment intensity values using the lexicon-based model called VADER. Our analysis further focuses on
testing for Granger causality using the bivariate vector autoregression. Overall, three major stock market
indices are employed in testing, namely DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The results yield a statistically
significant Granger causal relationship in the case of the first differences of DJIA and S&P 500 logarithms
with time series of Barack Obama’s sentiment values.