Detail práce

Effect of expectations on civil-war and its recurrence

Autor: Bc. Barbora Kořánová
Rok: 2017 - letní
Vedoucí: doc. PhDr. Martin Gregor Ph.D.
Konzultant:
Typ práce: Bakalářská
Jazyk: Anglicky
Stránky: 77
Ocenění:
Odkaz: https://is.cuni.cz/webapps/zzp/detail/185504/
Abstrakt: The goal of this thesis is to shed light on the efect of expectations on the civil
war and its recurrence. We use a dataset that covers over 90 countries over
the period of 1970–2014. First, we introduce proxy-variables of expectations
about the future presence of civil war into an econometric model of occurrence
of civil conlict. Using the logistic regression, we ind that expectations
have a signiicant inluence on the onset of civil conlict. Thereafter, we examine
the impact of these expectations in post-conlict situations, which is
smaller but non-negligible. Subsequently, we compare the features of postconlict
countries, where civil war has repeated within 10 years and where
it has not, via the Welch test. Finally, we describe conlict as a game with
complete information and as a Bayesian game. In these we identify the role
of expectations about opponent’s action and the role of changes in payofs.
VO Martina Jasova

20

Prosinec

VO Martina Jasova

Prosinec 2017
poútstčtsone
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031

Partneři

ČSOB
Deloitte
McKinsey & Company

Sponzoři

CRIF