Work detail

Effect of expectations on civil-war and its recurrence

Author: Bc. Barbora Kořánová
Year: 2017 - summer
Leaders: doc. PhDr. Martin Gregor Ph.D.
Consultants:
Work type: Bachelors
Language: English
Pages: 77
Awards and prizes:
Link:
Abstract: The goal of this thesis is to shed light on the efect of expectations on the civil
war and its recurrence. We use a dataset that covers over 90 countries over
the period of 1970–2014. First, we introduce proxy-variables of expectations
about the future presence of civil war into an econometric model of occurrence
of civil conlict. Using the logistic regression, we ind that expectations
have a signiicant inluence on the onset of civil conlict. Thereafter, we examine
the impact of these expectations in post-conlict situations, which is
smaller but non-negligible. Subsequently, we compare the features of postconlict
countries, where civil war has repeated within 10 years and where
it has not, via the Welch test. Finally, we describe conlict as a game with
complete information and as a Bayesian game. In these we identify the role
of expectations about opponent’s action and the role of changes in payofs.

Partners

ČSOB
Deloitte
McKinsey & Company

Sponsors

CRIF