The Impact of Oil Prices in Norway on Macroeconomic Indicators
|Author:||Mgr. Peter Bogren|
|Year:||2017 - summer|
|Leaders:|| prof. Roman Horváth Ph.D.
|Work type:|| Masters
|Awards and prizes:|
|Abstract:||This thesis analyzes the impact of oil price shocks on the selected macroeconomic variables in
Norway for the period of 1990 till 2016. Lag-length test and structural vector autoregressive
models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators.
We are incorporating 1990 - 2016-time horizon to show the before-crisis, during and after the
crisis oil price behavior. We will show that Norwegian oil prices have a strong and significant
impact on exchange rate and export per capita. In the context of significant impact, we mean
the oil prices will be dependent on these macroeconomic variables. We assume to have the
correlation strong. We will show that oil price increase has opposite effect on export per
capita and negative impact (decrease) on industrial production index. Last hypothesis states
that oil price increase cause interest rate to rise and exchange rate to appreciate.