Detail práce

Utilizing Online Data in Modelling Unemployment Rates in the Czech Republic

Autor: Bc. Kristýna Křížová
Rok: 2019 - letní
Vedoucí: doc. PhDr. Ladislav Krištoufek Ph.D.
Konzultant:
Typ práce: Bakalářská
Jazyk: Anglicky
Stránky: 73
Ocenění:
Odkaz:
Abstrakt: Unemployment rate is a crucial macroeconomic aspect for each state, which aim to have it as
low as possible. However, if it is too low, many problems could arise due to a large number of
job vacancies and a small number of people needed for market. As the Internet is very useful
nowadays, the main aim of the thesis is to investigate the relationship between the Czech
unemployment rate and job search on the Internet by users who are interested in changing jobs
or are unemployed and need to find some work. Thanks to the relationship, we can conclude
whether online data could improve unemployment prediction, which is needed to make
effective government decisions. This thesis should also provide easier and better prediction of
movements in the unemployment rate, which is inaccurate as most data sources used in
economics are commonly available only after a substantial lag. The study applies data freely
available on the website of Integrated Portal of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, which
provides statistics of unemployment rates, as well as data from portal Jobs.cz, where are
information about job vacancies on the portal and response of candidates to occupied positions.
The thesis uses a simple autoregressive model of the unemployment in the Czech Republic and
extends it with extra variables containing data from the portal Jobs.cz. In addition to the
augmented autoregressive model of the Czech Republic, the study estimates the same models
for 14 regions of the Czech Republic separately. The results indicate that data from the job
search portal Jobs.cz improve nowcasts of the Czech unemployment rate as well as base models
with relationship between the unemployment rate and data on number of job vacancies and
responses to them. Nevertheless, our findings show that the job-related data do not improve
forecasts of the unemployment rate.

Partneři

Deloitte
McKinsey & Company
Moneta Money Bank

Sponzoři

CRIF
ČSOB