Microsimulation model of population for estimation of future housing demand in Prague
|Author:||Bc. Adriana Pinlová|
|Year:||2021 - summer|
|Leaders:|| Mgr. Petr Polák MSc. Ph.D.
|Work type:|| Bachelors
|Awards and prizes:|
|Abstract:||The aim of this thesis was to create and implement a microsimulation model which will
be able to estimate the future size and age structure of the population of Prague, thus
contributing to the discussion on the topic of unavailability of housing. The created model
is based on the historical development of mortality, fertility and migration in the area.
Age-specific mortality and fertility rates were obtained using the Lee-Carter model. As
a result of the microsimulation, it is apparent that in the next twenty years the population
will clearly grow, which is due to the expected positive net migration rate. At the same
time, the model assumes that in terms of the total number of inhabitants of Prague, the
growth rate does not accelerate or slow down. If the volume of construction from the past
twenty years is maintained, there will be no increase in the unavailability of housing due
to population growth.