Research seminar: Jacob Lund Orquin (Aarhus University)

We would like to invite you to a research seminar by Jacob Lund Orquin, Professor at the Department of Management at Aarhus University.

Title: *Do Nudges Work? A Dose-Response Approach to Causal Inference in Meta-Analysis*

Author: Jacob Lund Orquin (Aarhus University)

Abstract: Meta-analyses play a central role in advancing both science and policy, yet their credibility is often challenged by publication bias, which can obscure whether observed effects are genuine. A recent debate in the literature has highlighted this issue in the context of behavioral policies (nudging), leaving open the question of whether such interventions have meaningful effects (Mertens et al., 2022; Maier et al., 2022). In this presentation, I propose a framework for causal inference in meta-analysis based on the recovery of dose–response relationships. Building on Hill’s criteria and their formalization in modern causal inference (Hirano and Imbens, 2004), I argue that systematic variation in effect sizes across theoretically relevant dimensions can serve as a diagnostic for causal interpretation. I propose artifact meta-regression as a form of dose–response estimation, where variation in measurement attenuation captures differences in treatment intensity. I apply this framework to reassess the evidence on nudging interventions, examining whether the observed effects reflect a genuine causal impact on policy outcomes, as argued by Mertens et al. (2022), or are primarily driven by publication bias, as suggested by Maier et al. (2022).

The seminar will take place on *Wednesday*, May 20, 2026, in Room 314 at 12:30.

The paper is available upon request.

If you need a discussion slot with Prof. Orquin, please write to Prof. Tomáš Havránek, and he will try to find a suitable time.

The list of all research seminars at IES (past and forthcoming) is available at: https://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/en/research/research-seminars.