Green Transitions in Coal-Dependent Economies: A Hybrid Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Czech National Energy and Climate Plan
Green Transitions in Coal-Dependent Economies: A Hybrid Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Czech National Energy and Climate Plan
| Autoři: | Vědunka Kopečná Inaki Veruete Villegas |
|---|---|
| Publikováno v: | IES Working Papers 6/2026 |
| Klíčová slova: | Hybrid CGE model; Green Transition; Climate policies; Energy and transport |
| JEL kódy: | C68; D12; D58; H22; H23; Q43; Q52; R42 |
| Citace: | Kopečná V., Villegas IV (2026): " Green Transitions in Coal-Dependent Economies: A Hybrid Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Czech National Energy and Climate Plan " IES Working Papers 6/2026. IES FSV. Charles University. |
| Abstrakt: | This paper assesses the long-term macroeconomic and environmental impacts of climate policies in the Czech Republic, a coal-dependent economy, under the EU’s Fit-for-55 package. Using a hybrid dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, we integrate a bottom-up electricity module with technology-specific detail and a discrete choice module capturing consumer preferences for vehicle technologies. The model, formulated as a mixed complementarity problem in GAMS, accounts for capacity constraints in power generation and endogenizes vehicle fleet evolution based on choice probabilities. We evaluate two scenarios: With Existing Measures (WEM), reflecting current policies, and With Additional Measures (WAM), which includes coal phase-out, expanded renewables, and the introduction of ETS2. Results show that WAM leads to more than 60% reduction in power sector CO2 emissions by 2040 and 80% battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption by 2050. However, green investments under WAM do not balance out structural shifts—especially in fossil-related sectors— negatively influencing GDP. This integrated top-down and bottom-up modeling approach offers a robust framework for evaluating economy-wide effects of climate action. Findings inform cost-effective and socially balanced decarbonization strategies for Czech and EU policymakers. |
| Ke stažení: | wp_2026_06_kopecna, villegas |
