Determining Factors of the Czech Balance Trade: Structural Issues in Trade and Growth
|Principal investigator:||PhDr. Vladimír Čermák|
doc. Ing. Vladimír Benáček CSc.
prof. RNDr. Jan Ámos Víšek CSc.
|Description:||This study aims to contribute to the deeper understanding of the development in and the determinants of trade balance of transition economies in general. In the empirical part of the research we applied the methodology derived from economic theory on Czech international trade with the EU and the rest of world. At the end we used reference scenarios for the exogenous variables and predicted the potential trends in the Czech trade balance for 2003-2005. The results of our analysis suggest that the most important determinants of the Czech balance of trade with the EU countries are the GDPs (domestic and in the EU) and the real exchange rate. The product quality of Czech exports has been on a steadily improving trajectory throughout 1993-2002, what boosted the export penetration. Also the economies to scale were a highly significant factor, along with the sharply rising importance of intra-industry trade. Based on our results, the trend developments in the balance of trade remain for a three years outlook relatively steady, with indication of a slight movement towards improvement.|
|Work in grant:||Sestavování regresních modelů, testy významnosti jednotlivých ekonomických faktorů, analýza citlivosti exportu/importu na činitelích dle jednotlivých skupin SITC, výpočetní podpora.|