Detail publikace

Central Banks' Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy

Autor: prof. Roman Horváth Ph.D., Jonášová, Júlia
Typ: IES Working Papers
Rok: 2014
Číslo: 35
Publikováno v: IES Working Papers 35/2014
Místo vydání: Prague
Klíčová slova: voting records, financial crisis, central bank, monetary policy
JEL kódy: D78, E52, E58
Citace: Horváth R., Jonášová J. (2014). “Central Banks’ Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy” IES Working Paper 35/2014. IES FSV. Charles University.
Abstrakt: We examine whether central banks’ voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, first, we examine the period of the global financial crisis, characterized by a high level of uncertainty, and second, we examine the predictive power of voting records at longer time horizons, i.e., not only for the next monetary policy meeting. We find that voting records predict the policy rate set at the next meeting in all central banks that are recognized as independent. In some central banks, voting records are found—before, but not during, the financial crisis—to be informative about
monetary policy even at more distant time horizons.
Ke stažení: wp_2014_35_Horvath_Jonasova




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