Leading Indicators of Financial Stress: New Evidence
| Autor: | † prof. Mgr. Kateřina Šmídková M.A., Ph.D., Jakob de Haan, Marco Hoeberichts, Bořek Vašíček and Robert Vermeulen Mgr. Diana Žigraiová , Jakob de Haan, Marco Hoeberichts, Bořek Vašíček and Robert Vermeulen |
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| Typ: | Ostatní |
| Rok: | 2015 |
| Číslo: | 0 |
| ISSN / ISBN: | |
| Publikováno v: | DNB Working Papers 476 (2015) |
| Místo vydání: | DeNederlandsche Bank, Netherlands |
| Klíčová slova: | financial stress index, Bayesian model averaging, early warning indicators |
| JEL kódy: | E5, G10 |
| Citace: | |
| Abstrakt: | This paper examines which variables have predictive power for financial stress in a sample of 25 OECD countries, using a recently constructed Financial Stress Index (FSI). First, we employ Bayesian model averaging to identify leading indicators of our FSI. Next, we use those indicators as explanatory variables in a panel model for all our countries and in models at the individual country level. It turns out that panel models can hardly explain FSI dynamics. Although better results are achieved in models estimated at the country level, our findings suggest that (increases in) financial stress is (are) hard to predict out-of-sample. |
