How to Anticipate Recession via Transport Indices
| Autor: | doc. PhDr. Ing. Ing. Petr Jakubík Ph.D. Ph.D., Seyit Kerimkhulle Ing. Saida Teleu Ph.D., Seyit Kerimkhulle |
|---|---|
| Typ: | Články v impaktovaných časopisech |
| Rok: | 2017 |
| Číslo: | 0 |
| ISSN / ISBN: | |
| Publikováno v: | Journal of Economics, Vol. 65, No. 10, pp. 972-990. |
| Místo vydání: | |
| Klíčová slova: | Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, logistic growth, stochastic dynamics, economic growth |
| JEL kódy: | |
| Citace: | |
| Granty: | GAČR 17-02509S - Nová finanční rizika v globálním prostředí nízkých úrokových sazeb |
| Abstrakt: | This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance. |
