Publication detail

How to Anticipate Recession via Transport Indices

Author(s): doc. PhDr. Ing. Ing. Petr Jakubík Ph.D. Ph.D., Seyit Kerimkhulle
Ing. Saida Teleu Ph.D., Seyit Kerimkhulle
Type: Articles in journals with impact factor
Year: 2017
Number: 0
ISSN / ISBN:
Published in: Journal of Economics, Vol. 65, No. 10, pp. 972-990.
Publishing place:
Keywords: Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, logistic growth, stochastic dynamics, economic growth
JEL codes:
Suggested Citation:
Grants: GACR 17-02509S - Emerging financial risks during a global low interest rate environment
Abstract: This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance.

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