How to Anticipate Recession via Transport Indices
| Author(s): | doc. PhDr. Ing. Ing. Petr Jakubík Ph.D. Ph.D., Seyit Kerimkhulle Ing. Saida Teleu Ph.D., Seyit Kerimkhulle |
|---|---|
| Type: | Articles in journals with impact factor |
| Year: | 2017 |
| Number: | 0 |
| ISSN / ISBN: | |
| Published in: | Journal of Economics, Vol. 65, No. 10, pp. 972-990. |
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| Keywords: | Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, logistic growth, stochastic dynamics, economic growth |
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| Suggested Citation: | |
| Grants: | GACR 17-02509S - Emerging financial risks during a global low interest rate environment |
| Abstract: | This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance. |
