Publication detail

Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries

Author(s): prof. Ing. Evžen Kočenda M.A., Ph.D., DSc., Karen Poghosyan
Type: IES Working Papers
Year: 2020
Number: 5
Published in: IES Working Papers 5/2020
Publishing place: Prague
Keywords: Bayesian VAR, dynamic and static principal components, European OECD countries, factor augmented VAR, nowcasting, real GDP growth, short-term forecasting
JEL codes: C33, C38, C52, C53, E37, E52
Suggested Citation: Kocenda E. and Poghosyan K. (2020): "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries" IES Working Papers 5/2020. IES FSV. Charles University.
Abstract: We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of twelve old and six new member countries of the European Union (EU) that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis, we generate ex-post out-of-sample nowcasts and forecasts based on hard and soft indicators that come from a comparable set of identical data. We show that nowcasting works well for the new EU countries because, although that variability in their GDP growth data is larger than that of the old EU economies, the economic significance of nowcasting is on average somewhat larger.
Downloadable: wp_2020_05_kocenda_poghosyan




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