Estimating the Determinants of FDI in Transition Economies Comparative Analysis of the Republic of Kosovo
|Author:||Mgr. Jetëmira Berisha|
|Year:||2012 - summer|
|Leaders:|| prof. Ing. Oldřich Dědek CSc.
|Work type:|| Masters
|Awards and prizes:|
|Abstract:||This study develops a panel data analysis over 27 transition and post transition economies for the period 2003-2010. Its intent is to investigate empirically the true effect of seven variables into foreign flows and takes later on the advantage of observed findings to conduct a comparative analysis between Kosovo and regional countries such: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia.
As the breakdown period (2008-2010) was included in the data set used to modelling the behaviour of FDI, both Chow test and the time dummies technique suggest the presence of structural break. Ultimately, empirical results show that FDI is positively related with one year lagged effect of real GDP growth, trade openness, labour force, low level of wages proxied by remittances, real interest rate and the low level of corruption. Besides, the corporate income tax is found to be significant and inversely related with foreign flows.
The comparative analysis referring the growth rate of real GDP shows that Kosovo has the most stable macroeconomic environment in the region, but still it is continuously confronted by the high deficit of trade balance and high rate of unemployment. Appart, the key obstacle that has abolished efforts for foreign investment attraction is found to be the trade blockade of Kosovar products by Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina together with the unenviable position of Kosovo regarding the doing business climate and the failure to reduce the level of corruption.