Work detail

Effect of CNB's Monetary Intervention on Czech Exports to Germany

Author: Bc. Tadeáš Krejčí
Year: 2016 - summer
Work type: Bachelors
Language: English
Pages: 87
Awards and prizes:
Abstract: The primary interest of the thesis consists in impact of the Czech National Bank's monetary
intervention on the volumes of Czech exports to Germany. To determine the significance of the
potential casual effect, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is constructed based on economic
introspection and previous findings of other authors, to be subsequently estimated using the
lucid method of least squares. Based on this procedure, we find evidence supporting the positive
causal effect at hand. The results also confirm the presence of a structural break into periods
before and after the initiation of controlled float regime. Furthermore, indications of casual
effects are encountered in cases of other macroeconomic variables, such as German exports,
supporting the reasoning in earlier works relating to this topic.




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