Work detail

Assessing Economic Linkages between the EU and the Eastern Europe Neighbours

Author: Mgr. Daniela Moisei
Year: 2018 - summer
Leaders: prof. Roman Horváth Ph.D.
Consultants:
Work type: Finance, Financial Markets and Banking
Masters
Language: English
Pages: 98
Awards and prizes:
Link: https://is.cuni.cz/webapps/zzp/detail/191777/
Abstract: The proposed study analyses the economic linkages between five Central and Eastern
European countries (Czech Republic, Romania, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine) and the euro
area, in the period 2006-2017, applying the block-restriction vector autoregression model. It
allows evaluating the amplitude and persistence of the domestic vs. euro area shocks on four
macroeconomic indicators: real GDP, short-term interest rate, CPI, and FX rate. The main
findings emphasize that EU members are more economically synchronized with the euro area,
responding to external factors in less than 10 months. Nevertheless, the Central Banks of the
East European countries react extensively to the ECB monetary policy shocks, following
broadly its short-term interest rate. Eastern Neighbourhood countries and Central EU
members demonstrated tight connections with the euro area, in terms of international
transmission of price shocks and economic activity synchronization. Thus, Czech Republic and
Romania could be relevant models for the Eastern European countries, reaching their main
aspiration - EU integration. Also, the paper presents a review on Deep and Comprehensive
Free Trade Areas and Association Agreements, as well as their implementation in Georgia,
Moldova and Ukraine, since 2014.

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