A forecast of Commercial Real Estate Development and Investment Volumes in the Czech Republic
|Autor:||Bc. Thanh Tu Nguyen|
|Rok:||2018 - letní|
|Vedoucí:|| Tomáš Jandík, CFA, MRICS
|Typ práce:|| CSF - Corporate Strategy and Finance
|Abstrakt:||This thesis attempts to forecast investment volumes of the commercial real estate market in the
Czech Republic in the medium-term from 2017 to 2020, using both qualitative methods and
econometric models. Fundamental analysis and chart analysis are employed while judgemental
forecasts by market experts are collected. In order to find evidence of historical and upcoming
commercial asset price bubbles, a state-of-the-art peak-tagging technique and chart analysis for
the graph of commercial real estate capital value index are used before integrating with market
specialists’ opinions. Neither CRE bubble nor signal for future major downturn has been found
since 2000 despite the occurance of minor overpricing periods. ARIMA and several VAR
models with endogenous and exogenous variables are run to find the best quantitative forecasts.
Final forecasted investment volume for the upcoming years is found by integrating experts’
opinion and results from the chosen model.