Fiscal policy in real-time: Role of growth surprises
|Author:||Mgr. Vendula Kulichová|
|Year:||2020 - winter|
|Leaders:|| PhDr. Jaromír Baxa Ph.D.
|Work type:|| Finance, Financial Markets and Banking
|Awards and prizes:|
|Abstract:||This thesis explores the reliability of real-time estimates of the cyclically-adjusted primary
balances. Using fixed effects and weighted least squares models, we show that the real-time
estimates are systematically biased and subsequently revised downwards. Moreover, the most
important determinants of the revisions are economic conditions and the cyclically-adjusted
primary balance revisions are positively correlated with growth surprises. On the other hand,
we do not confirm any significant role of institutions and political environment that has
appeared in the previous literature.