Detail práce

The Effects of Electronic Records of Sales: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis

Autor: Mgr. Monika Besedová
Rok: 2020 - letní
Vedoucí: doc. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek Ph.D.
Typ práce: Diplomová
Finance, finanční trhy a bankovnictví
Jazyk: Anglicky
Stránky: 80
Abstrakt: The objective of this thesis is to analyze the impact of the electronic records of sales (ERS)
implemented on December 1, 2016, in the Czech Republic. The ERS orders given
entrepreneurs to use special cash boxes and to send data about single sales to the Financial
Authority immediately after each transaction. Experience shows that the ERS reduced tax
evasion and the shadow economy. This thesis fills a gap in literature as no study has yet
examined the impact of ERS on macroeconomic variables - gross domestic product (GDP) per
capita, unemployment rate and harmonized consumer price index (HCPI). To analyze it, I apply
SCM by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Abadie et al. (2010) and Abadie et al. (2015) that
proposes the way how to evaluate the impact of political interventions using a quantitative
approach. Using data from the Eurostat and OECD databases from Q1 2004-Q3 2019, the
method allows me to construct a counterfactual outcome for GDP per capita, unemployment
rate and HCPI in the absence of the implementation of the ERS. I also apply the extension of
original SCM - generalize synthetic control method by Xu (2017) and augmented synthetic
control method by Ben-Michael et al. (2018) as robustness checks. Moreover, the interference
procedures include the modified confidence interval by Firpo and Possebom (2018) based on
a uniformly distributed probability of treatment across countries. The result suggests a
statistically significant positive effect of 2.3% on GDP per capita in 2018. The overall effect on
the unemployment rate and HCPI is not significantly different from zero.




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