Work detail

The Belt and Road Initiative: Effects on eastern Europe and post-soviet republics gravity analysis

Author: Bc. Jakub Reinštein
Year: 2020 - summer
Leaders: Mgr. Michal Paulus
Consultants:
Work type: Bachelors
Language: English
Pages: 69
Awards and prizes:
Link:
Abstract: In this paper I intend to examine the impact of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),
logistical performance and corruption on bilateral trade among countries along its inland
corridors. In order to do so I have used micro-founded gravity model of trade. Ordinary Least
Square and Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimations with importer, exporter and year
fixed effects were applied on panel dataset including information about 150 countries between
2007 and 2015.
My results indicate, that BRI has positive effect on bilateral trade between involved
countries, however it has negative impact on the trade with the rest of the world. I have also
found out, that logistics performance is significant factor in facilitating trade in some categories
of goods. Interestingly my results have not identified corruption as negative factor in trade and
in some cases, it appears that corruption might promote trade, however further research of this
topic is needed.

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