Work detail

The COVID-19 measures: Impact on economies and mitigating spread of the disease

Author: Bc. Jan Žiačik
Year: 2021 - summer
Leaders: PhDr. Lucie Bryndová
Work type: Bachelors
Language: English
Pages: 62
Awards and prizes:
Abstract: The thesis analyzes effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on economic growth and
transmission of COVID-19. At first, on the quarterly panel data from 96 world countries,
the U.S. states and the District of Columbia, covering period between 2014 and 2020,
several fixed effect regressions are used in order to estimate effects of voluntary reduction
of economic activity and stringency of the measures, represented by proxy variables
Stringency Index and deaths per 100 000 inhabitants, on economic growth. Then, on the
same data, again utilizing fixed effects, effects of individual non-pharmaceutical
interventions on economic growth are analyzed. The effects of the measures on the
transmission of COVID-19 are then estimated on panel data with two-week periods,
approximately covering last 3 quarters of 2020. The results of the first part of the analysis
suggest that of the two estimated effects, economic growth was determined solely by the
stringency of the measures in 2020. As for the individual measures, statistically
significant effect of cancellation of public events is identified. Analyzing their effect on
the transmission of COVID-19, closure of schools, closure of workplaces, restrictions on
gatherings and mask wearing requirements have statistically significant negative effect
on the growth rate of the new cases and income support has a positive one but only if they
are implemented with a sufficient stringency. Stay at home order seems to significantly
lower transmission, even if it is in force with a low stringency but further strengthening
of the measure does not seem to have additional impact. Finally, cancellation of public
events negatively affects transmission with statistical significance if it is implemented
with a low stringency and further strengthening of it has additional significant effect.




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