Work detail

Measuring Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using General Equilibrium Models

Author: Mgr. Ha Eun Kim
Year: 2021 - summer
Leaders: Ing. Vilém Semerák M.A., Ph.D.
Consultants:
Work type: Masters
MEF
Language: English
Pages: 77
Awards and prizes:
Link:
Abstract: This study analyzes the trade war between the United States (US) and China
using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) CGE (Computable General
Equilibrium) model. Five scenarios focused on economic decoupling are analyzed: 1. Mutual tariff levels increased to 25%, 2. Mutual tariff levels increased
to 45%, 3. Bilateral export levels decreased by 25%, 4. Bilateral export levels
decreased by 45%, and 5. Trade efficiency decreased by 10%. The analysis
shows both the US and China’s consumer welfare and GDP decreased across
all scenarios, with a larger decrease in China. In addition, when exports from
China and the United States decrease, there is an increase in exports from the
ASEAN region.

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