Work detail

Electricity demand prediction

Author: Mgr. David Baránek
Year: 2005 - summer
Leaders: prof. RNDr. Jiří Hlaváček CSc.
Work type: Economic Theory
Language: Czech
Pages: 67
Awards and prizes:
Abstract: This contribution to the relevant economic public wants to show in detail mechanisms of electricity prediction models. The exercised hypothesis let be „methodology of economic modelling is effective within prediction of electricity demand“. The side-effect of this hypothesis approval is the information about growth of model complexity with corresponding rise in significance level and/or more distant future time horizon. The study explores empirical data leading to model formulation, methodology of the world’s most common energy models, their applicability in the real sector circumstances and assesses output reliability of chosen common model. It identifies weak moments of methodology, contemplate directions of further improve of a chosen model and assesses the output significance ratio growth as a result of added input parameters in converging economy. The reader is assumed to be familiar with the energy sector terminology and modelling techniques.




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