Work detail

Possible incidence of Turkish EU accession: development of migration flows

Author: PhDr. Glazar Ondřej
Year: 2008 - summer
Work type: Doctoral
Language: Czech
Pages: 89
Awards and prizes:
Abstract: In this thesis we apply the panel data estimators on the migration data from 18 European Countries into Germany to construct forecast of future migrations. Based on the estimated results we forecast the migration flows from Turkey into the European Union. In the first two chapters the framework and background of the Turkish EU migration is described and migration as a stand alone economic phenomenon. In a main part of the thesis the first two sections are combined. The panel data model is constructed and the data are successfully tested for cointegration. We find that the seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator in this framework. Results reveal that the network effect is the strongest driver for the migration followed by the target country labour market conditions and the income effect is actually relatively small. Particularly, the Turkish income does not have any effect on migration, because it is entering the model in a two variables that are working against each other. Also the low importance of opening a labour market is found. Finally the estimated coefficients are used to predict migration to Germany and through appropriate extrapolation to the whole European Union. Three scenarios of migration were created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is discussed in detail.
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